An Old Enemy in the Modern World
A Brief Perspective on COVID-19
The world is in a crisis, both here in America and abroad. A new virus has sparked a worldwide pandemic. The epidemiologists, (and Bill Gates) had been warning us that it was just a matter of when, not if. They were right.
Reliable information has been scarce. People everywhere are confused, anxious and exhausted. Governments are in crisis mode as the pandemic has spilled over into an economic calamity the likes of which are unprecedented. It feels like we are staring into an abyss.
But it helps to remember that the book of human history reads as a litany of difficult times that have been overcome. The 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) that was estimated to have killed as many as 80 million people was immediately followed by the roaring 20’s. We clawed our way out of the Great Depression only to be dragged into World War II. A massive, war-time effort to defeat the Germans was followed by the great post-war economic expansion and Baby Boom. Vietnam, the 70’s oil shock, the Cold War, the sub-prime financial crisis…We are rarely not dealing with something.
Here’s why I am optimistic.
This is not an existential threat. This is not a nebulous threat. This is a knowable threat, one that can be fought through collective effort, science and innovation. Already, we know what we are facing down to the level of its DNA sequence.
Consider an example: After hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf in 2005, oil production was shut down and the price of oil skyrocketed to over $100 per barrel, threatening the economy. The worldwide innovation that geared into motion was awe-inspiring. New technologies to deal with expensive oil came at breakneck speed. Exponential increases in the efficiency of solar and wind power generation quickly followed. New fracking technology allowed for the extraction of hard-to-get-at oil and gas. Electric cars inspired from the crisis are now competitive with combustion engine cars.
The initial panic from COVID-19 was predictable and justified. A pandemic from a new, exotic and deadly virus is terrifying. However, signs of the same innovation and collective effort that confronted challenges of the past are stirring. People are gathering their breath, rolling up their sleeves, getting creative, and beginning to work together to face the new virus. Ford, GM and Tesla are in talks to pivot manufacturing for much needed ventilators. A 3D-printer company in Italy has designed and printed 100 life-saving respirator valves in 24 hours for a hospital that had run out of them. The world’s biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry has turned its collective muscle toward vaccine development and treatments for the interim. Social distancing efforts are being initiated en mass by corporations and local governments. Grocery stores are setting aside times for the most vulnerable to shop safely. Some power companies have refrained from shutting off power for unpaid bills. Student and medical debt are being put on hold. We are mobilizing. COVID-19 is in our collective crosshairs.
If history is any guide these types of collective efforts, born from dark times, spark the latent innovative potential within humanity. The small pox pandemic inspired Edward Jenner to invent vaccination. The darkest moment of World War II inspired the Manhattan Project. The Cold War took us to the moon. This time will be no different.
For sure this is a hard situation. But we will beat this by working together, remembering that the innovation and humanity on the other side will remain with us forever.
Expect the 20’s to be roaring again.
